Big deal: What does EU candidate status actually mean for Ukraine?

Even because it fights Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is on observe to be granted the standing of a candidate for EU membership.

The European Fee on Friday recommended conferring the coveted standing on each Ukraine and Moldova, “on the understanding” that they’d perform reforms to bolster the rule of regulation and meet EU requirements in a variety of different areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Twitter hailed the sign from Brussels as “the first step on the EU membership path that’ll definitely carry our Victory nearer.”

Following a thumbs-up from Germany, France and Italy, EU heads of state and authorities are poised to endorse the Fee’s suggestion for Ukraine and Moldova at a summit subsequent week — though they could nonetheless wrangle a bit on what strings to connect.

However how large a deal is candidate standing actually? POLITICO has all it is advisable to know…

What does membership candidate standing imply?

It’s a primary official step on the street to EU membership — however that street could be lengthy and arduous and there’s no assure {that a} candidate will finally be accepted into the membership.

Whereas the European Fee recommends whether or not the EU ought to grant this standing to an applicant, the authority to take action rests with EU member governments, which should act unanimously to offer their approval.

Candidate standing additionally doesn’t imply an computerized begin to accession negotiations — that typically comes later and, once more, requires the approval of all EU member states. Fee officers had been clear on Friday that Ukraine and Moldova would every have some heavy lifting to do earlier than membership talks will start.

Nonetheless, candidate standing does carry main cachet. For nations aspiring to be a part of Europe’s most vital political and financial membership, candidate standing quantities to a primary seal of approval.

Naming Ukraine as a candidate nation would additionally ship a robust sign to Russia — that the EU received’t be intimidated by Moscow and is able to welcome Kyiv as a member.

Who’re the present membership candidates?

Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey all have the status of membership candidates.

Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are classed as “potential candidates.”

The Fee mentioned on Friday that Georgia ought to be “given the attitude to turn out to be a member of the European Union” however not but granted candidate standing.

What’s taking place with the present candidates?

Turkey was granted candidate standing in 1999 and started accession talks in 2005. However its membership bid has stalled as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has grown more and more autocratic and turned away from the West.

Montenegro and Serbia have been in accession negotiations since 2012 and 2014 respectively. Neither is near wrapping up the method and becoming a member of the EU.

The EU first bestowed candidate standing on North Macedonia (then generally known as the Republic of Macedonia) in 2005, and on Albania in 2014. The European Council agreed to open membership negotiations with each nations in March 2020 however these talks have but to start, primarily as a result of a bilateral dispute between Bulgaria, which joined the EU in 2007, and North Macedonia.

So how does the accession course of work?

Would-be members enter into talks that final for years. Candidates should undertake democratic norms and undertake reforms to satisfy EU guidelines, rules, and requirements in a variety of areas together with the economic system and the rule of regulation.

The negotiations are grouped into “chapters” for various coverage areas and a candidate can solely conclude a chapter when all EU members agree it has ticked the mandatory packing containers.

When a rustic is deemed to have closed all of the chapters, as soon as once more all EU governments need to log out earlier than that nation can lastly be admitted as an EU member.

Easy as that?

Probably not. There’s plenty of politics concerned.

Some EU nations have turn out to be deeply skeptical about enlargement and have seemed for tactics to decelerate any strikes towards including new members.

In some instances, member states have argued that some newer EU nations that met all the factors on paper haven’t lived as much as them in observe after being admitted. Privately a minimum of, some officers have questioned whether or not nations equivalent to Western Balkan states will ever actually meet the necessities to affix.

They’ve additionally insisted the EU can’t severely ponder including extra nations till it overhauls its personal unwieldy decision-making, already creaking underneath the load of 27 member states.

In recent times, such skeptics have included the Netherlands, Denmark and France — however they’re hardly the one ones.

Different nations, together with Germany, Italy and Central European members, have argued that enlargement is a geopolitical crucial. They word that it encourages would-be members within the EU’s neighborhood to turn out to be extra democratic. Excluding these nations from membership, they are saying, dangers increasing the affect of rival powers equivalent to Russia.

How lengthy does it take to turn out to be an EU member?

All of it will depend on how shortly the negotiations begin and the way easily they go. That, in flip, will depend on each the would-be member and the EU’s personal governments.

Among the many speediest nations to affix the EU had been Sweden and Finland. They took roughly three years from submitting their purposes to turning into members of the bloc.

Among the EU’s latest members took for much longer to get via the method — greater than 10 years every for Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia.

So what about Ukraine and Moldova?

The EU has by no means granted candidate standing to a rustic within the midst of a full-scale warfare, and lots of officers say it’s unrealistic to count on Ukraine’s membership bid to maneuver ahead till peace is restored within the nation.

That mentioned, the nation had been working aggressively to undertake the EU’s legal guidelines and requirements, collectively generally known as the acquis, for about eight years, ever because it signed a political affiliation settlement and a deep and complete free commerce settlement with Brussels.

EU officers mentioned Ukraine has already adopted 70 % of the acquis. Moldova could have a bit extra work to do, and faces the added complication of its breakaway area of Transnistria, managed by Russian-backed separatists. Simply as there isn’t any strategy to predict when or how the warfare will finish, it appears unimaginable to foretell how lengthy it may take Ukraine and Moldova to turn out to be EU members.